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Monday, 08 February 2010
Self-fulfilling Prophecies PDF E-mail
Sunday, 30 April 2006
As I surf around the web and conduct business as usual, I see alot of information saying that this real estate bubble is about to burst.  Since the bubble is the buzzword I guess I should address it.

The real estate market in many areas of the country over the last few years has been...well crazy may be the best term to describe it.  Homes have been selling with a significant appreciation, 20 percent and more in some markets, and they have been selling quickly.  In most cases they sell within a few days of being put on the market.  This defines a hot market, and the appreciation that they are experiencing in those markets is what the experts are saying is inflating the bubble.


I want to remind all of you folks that live here in Utah and more specifically along the Wasatch Front that all of this has not been the case here.  On the contrary, until just last spring we were in a pretty slow market, and we had been there for a number of years.  Sellers were not even seeing enough appreciation when they sold to account for inflation.  Alot of them had to take a hit on the price to even get it sold.  That means the sellers had to write a check at the closing table to break even.  I guess what I am getting at is this: Our bubble doesn't have much air in it.  Have you ever tried to pop a balloon that just has a couple of breaths worth of air in it?


The last thing I want the folks in Utah to realize is that real estate markets are independent and isolated.  A good analogy for this is the weather.  Take a look at the weather in the United States tonight on the national news.  You write a two or three sentence blanket statement that gives everyone in the US a good idea of what to expect tomorrow weather-wise.  Real estate markets are the same as the weather.  They vary from state to state, region to region, and even from suburb to suburb.  For instance, Utah County experienced less growth than Salt Lake County, it's neighbor to the north, last year.  Washington County, St George area, has been experiencing great growth for several years now.  You need to understand that even though Matt Lauer, and Katie Couric say the bubble is about to burst, and their expert confirms it, he is an expert on Manhattan not Kearns.  I would only pay attention to him if I lived in Manhattan. 

 
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